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长江上游生态脆弱，对气候变化敏感。为定量评估气候和下垫面变化对该区流域径流、输沙的影响，以五郎河为典型流域，耦合Budyko框架与因子分解法，建立含沙量与侵蚀动力、侵蚀阻力的响应关系，开展水沙演变归因分析。结果表明：研究期内流域年径流与输沙量均显著减少(p<0.01),突变点为2005年。与基准期(1990—2005年)相比，突变后时期(2006—2022年)气候变化主导了径流减少(贡献率为67.23%),下垫面变化贡献率为32.77%;二者对输沙量减少的贡献率则基本相当(分别为49.50%和50.50%)。研究成果可为长江上游水土资源管理提供科学支撑。
Abstract：The upper reaches of the Yangtze River are ecologically fragile and highly sensitive to climate change. To quantitatively evaluate the impacts of climate and underlying surface changes on runoff and sediment transport in this region, this study took the Wulang river basin as a typical watershed, coupled the Budyko framework and factor decomposition method to establish the response relationship between sediment concentration, erosion dynamics, and erosion resistance, and carried out the attribution analysis of water and sediment evolution. The results showed that during the study period, both the annual runoff and sediment transport in the Wulang river basin decreased significantly(p<0.01), and the mutatiom point was 2005. Compared with the baseline period(1990—2005), climate change in the post-mutation period(2006—2022) dominated the runoff reduction with a contribution rate of 67.23%, and the contribution rate of underlying surface change was 32.77%. The contribution rates of the two to the reduction of sediment transport are basically equivalent(49.50% and 50.50% respectively). The research results can provide scientific support for the management of soil and water resource in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.16239/j.cnki.0468-155x.2026.02.006
中图分类号:P333
引用信息:
[1]谢瑾如,秦伟,丁琳,等.耦合Budyko与因子分解的流域水沙变化归因分析方法[J].泥沙研究,2026,51(02):38-45.DOI:10.16239/j.cnki.0468-155x.2026.02.006.
基金信息:
国家重点研发计划课题(2022YFF1302902); 中国科协青年人才托举工程项目(YFSS20240006); 中国水利水电科学研究院青年人才托举项目(SE0145C052025)
2026-03-03
2026-03-03
2026-03-03